Less than 5 weeks away now to the greatest show on turf, Cheltenham! We have two excellent meetings this weekend that always prove great guides to the festival. The first being across the pond at Newbury on Saturday. The feature race there, the Betfair Hurdle, has left me more confused than a goat on astrotuf, however I think I have found one that represents some value.
3.35 Newbury (Saturday)
My selection is from the very shrewd Jonjo O'Neill yard. Rated 106 on the flat, Alavain will be having his 4th start for the yard having previously been with Eddie O'Grady in Ireland. He ran 6th in the county hurdle in 2011 only beaten 2 lengths. That was from a mark of 144. He runs from 130 on Saturday with another 5lbs taken off by his jockeys claim. So coming from Jonjo's yard, running off a feather weight and in conditions he will be sure to like, the 16/1 available with Coral looks far too big to me. Expect this to go off a few points shorter come Saturday.
Advice 2pts e/w Alavain 3.35 Newbury. 16/1 with Coral
2.25 Newbury (Saturday)
The one I am going for here is Katenko. This is a horse who looked a class act when winning at Cheltenham at the end of January last year. He unfortunately suffered a bout of Colic thereafter but has now had 3 comeback runs, the last being particularly encouraging. This trip and ground are ideal for this French bred and his trainer could not have her string in ruder health. 4/1 seems a fair price to me.
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Advice 1pt win Katenko 2.25 Newbury. 4/1 with Paddypower
1.15 Leopardstown (Sunday)
Willie Mullins has 3 of the top 4 in the betting here and you can't imagine all 3 will go to post. With that in mind I think the 3/1 about Plinth seems a great price. He beat the favourite here fair and square over Christmas, despite making a mistake at the last. Ivan Grozny obviously improved to win next time but there will be a fair bit of improvement to come from Plinth too. I may be leaving my heart rule my head here as I was cheering Plinth home that day at Leopardstown but I see no reason why he cannot confirm the form for his prominent connections.
Advice 1pt win Plinth 1.15 Leopardstown. 3/1 Boylesports
